The Alaska Senate race may not be called for more than a week because of ranked choice tabulation, leaving the final size of the Democratic majority open four days after Election Day. Democrats have already secured at least 54 seats, flipping seven Republican held seats on Tuesday, but the final size of the majority now depends on two very different states, two very different counting systems, and two timelines that could stretch for days. Alaska will take the longest, and the result is a majority that is already certain, and a margin that is still unknown.
Why it matters
Ranked choice voting is slower by design, and it is also harder to predict. Voters rank candidates in order of preference, and ballots are counted in rounds until one candidate holds a majority. Second and third preferences can overturn a first round lead, which means that the early numbers, the ones that dominate election night coverage, can be misleading. A candidate who leads after the first count can lose after the later rounds, and a candidate who trails can win as lower placed candidates are eliminated and their votes are redistributed. The system is designed to produce a winner with majority support, and it pays for that legitimacy with time.
Alaska has a history of close and surprising Senate results, and this year is following that pattern. The state has produced upsets before, and its voters have a reputation for independence that makes statewide races hard to predict. The Senate contest this year was expected to be close, and the ranked choice count has made it closer still, because the outcome depends not only on who voters chose first, but on who they chose second and third, and on how those preferences flow when the field narrows. The counting will proceed round by round, and each round will be watched for the direction it points.
What happens next
The other uncalled race, in Mississippi, is moving faster but no less tensely. There, Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by about 2,000 ballots, with 96 percent of votes counted, and lawyers from both parties have descended on the state 82 counties to argue over affidavit ballots. About 20,000 to 30,000 ballots remain uncounted, and counties must certify by November 13. Mississippi has no recount law, so whoever finishes ahead takes the seat, and any dispute will go to the courts. Together, the two races will decide whether the Democratic majority is 54, 55 or 56 seats.
For Alaska voters, the wait is also a test of patience, and they are accustomed to slow counts. The counting will proceed at its own pace, and the responsible course is to wait for it rather than to declare a result that the ballots have not yet produced. The majority is already decided. The margin, and the mandate that comes with it, is the last open question of the night, and Alaska will answer it in its own time, round by round, until one candidate holds a majority and the Senate knows its final shape.
